Study on Business Use of Artificial Intelligence
Strikingly, in Panel C we see employees are far more optimistic than executives on the impact of AI on future employment… In particular, employees predict that AI will increase employment by approximately 0.5% in their firms over the next three years compared to the prediction from executives that it will reduce employment by 0.7% in all firms and 1.2% in US firms.
Why it matters:
The disconnect between the C-suite and the cubicle is the real story here. While 78% of US firms have adopted AI, US executives overall predict a 1.2% drop in headcount over the next three years, their own workers expect a 0.5% increase in jobs. This isn’t just optimism bias; it’s a fundamental disagreement on how AI reshapes work. The November 2025 to January 2026 survey of 6,000 senior executives shows they plan to cut roles via hiring freezes, yet the 3,000 employees surveyed believe AI will create opportunities. If workers are right, the labor market stabilizes. If executives are right, we face a quiet contraction where attrition does the dirty work. Douglas Holtz-Eakin noted the surprise at 69% adoption, but the 1.7 percentage point gap in employment forecasts is the danger zone. Companies betting on efficiency gains while ignoring worker sentiment risk a morale collapse before the first layoff memo hits.
